食品伙伴網訊 據sciencedirect數據庫消息，11月《食品控制》雜志（Food Control）刊登一項采用概率分布法評估HACCP體系內風險級別的研究。

    本論文闡述了一種新的危害分析方法，該法運用β和三角形概率分布改善HACCP計劃危害分析階段。在微軟Excel系統(tǒng)（電子制表程序）建立該模型。

    文章對豬肉切割程序進行了案例分析。在50%概率分布區(qū)間內，包裝階段的生物危害風險最高（如食源性致病菌生長），其概率為5.5×10-1.包裝階段的物理危害風險概率最低（如包裝破損導致的異物），其概率為1.4×10-1.該模型經進一步完善后，可增強HACCP在控制食品安全方面的效果。

    部分原文報道如下：

    Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points （HACCP）， internationally recognized as an effective way of controlling foodborne hazards, has been progressively applied for the benefit of the food industry. However, HACCP is a difficult principle to apply. Failure to perform hazard analysis could render the entire HACCP plan ineffective. This paper describes a new analytical method using simple beta and triangular probability distributions to improve the hazard analysis stage of the HACCP plan. Developed in Microsoft? Excel （a spreadsheet program）， the model calculates the risk level for the probability, i.e., the likelihood of occurrence of a specific hazard by using background information and data.

    A pork-cutting procedure was included in a case study. At a 50% percentile value in probability distribution, the highest risk was a biological hazard （e.g., foodborne pathogens growth） in the packaging steps, at a probability of 5.5 × 10?1. The lowest risk was a physical hazard in the packaging steps （e.g., foreign materials introduced by packaging damage）， at a probability of 1.4 × 10?3. Despite certain shortcomings, this model, with further improvements, could be expected to increase the effectiveness of HACCP in controlling food safety.

    原文鏈接：<http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0956713512004380>